USD millions unless stated otherwise. Valuation date 17 October 2026. Unlevered free cash flow is cash generation after fixed rent, cash taxes, cash capex and net deferred revenue; interest and principal are below the line and captured through net debt. Inputs beyond 2028 and all valuation inputs are analyst assumptions.
Summary
| Case | Enterprise value | Equity value | Per share (USD) | Against 61.39 | EV / 2027E revenue | EV / 2028E EBITDA after rent |
|---|
| Thesis stress | (7,806) | (37,806) | (68.54) | -212% | (0.43) | (1.15) |
| Continued funding | 138,143 | 108,143 | 196.05 | +219% | 4.93 | 6.22 |
The thesis-stress path produces a negative enterprise value: 2026 to 2028 free cash flow is deeply negative and the terminal business is a 55 percent margin lessor of depreciating compute carrying 7.6 billion of fixed rent, so the equity is worth nothing on that path and the unsecured creditors absorb the loss. The continued-funding path values the equity well above the current price only if 25 billion or more of 2027 financing arrives, and the model does not charge for its cost or dilution. The gap between the two rows is the funding window, which is the AI Credit Cycle thesis stated as a valuation.
Inputs
| Input | Value | Basis |
|---|
| WACC | 11.0% | Analyst assumption. Weighted cost of debt 8.3 percent in Q2 2026; unsecured notes marked 13.5 to 16 percent on 15 October 2026. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Analyst assumption. |
| Cash tax rate from 2030 | 15% | Analyst assumption; net operating losses shield earlier years. |
| Depreciation as a share of revenue (tax proxy) | 35% | Q2 2026 depreciation was 54 percent of revenue; fades as the fleet ages. |
| Net debt, June 30 2026 | 30,000 | Principal 35,551 less cash 5,524 and restricted cash 1,380, rounded. Q3 financings added debt and cash in equal measure. |
| Operating lease liabilities | 16,319 | Not deducted; fixed rent is inside free cash flow. |
| Diluted shares (millions) | 551.6 | 10-Q cover, 31 July 2026: 458.9 Class A and 92.7 Class B. Converts excluded. |
| Share price, 15 October 2026 | 61.39 | |
Thesis stress
2026 to 2028 follow the funding-bridge thesis-stress case: revenue of 18.0 billion in 2027 and 21.2 billion in 2028, a 60 percent cash margin before rent, capex of 22 billion and 12 billion, fixed rent per the June lease schedule plus leases not yet commenced. From 2029 growth fades from 12 to 3 percent, the margin to 55 percent on price compression, capex to a refresh level near 25 percent of revenue, and rent escalates 3 percent.
| USD millions | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E | 2031E | 2032E | 2033E | 2034E | 2035E |
|---|
| Revenue | 12,800 | 18,000 | 21,200 | 23,744 | 26,118 | 28,208 | 29,900 | 31,395 | 32,651 | 33,631 |
| Cash margin before rent | 60% | 60% | 60% | 58% | 56% | 55% | 55% | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Cash generation before rent | 7,680 | 10,800 | 12,720 | 13,772 | 14,626 | 15,514 | 16,445 | 17,267 | 17,958 | 18,497 |
| Fixed rent | (2,156) | (4,016) | (5,916) | (6,400) | (6,592) | (6,790) | (6,993) | (7,203) | (7,419) | (7,642) |
| EBITDA after rent | 5,524 | 6,784 | 6,804 | 7,372 | 8,034 | 8,724 | 9,452 | 10,064 | 10,539 | 10,855 |
| Cash taxes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 |
| Cash capex | (33,117) | (22,000) | (12,000) | (8,000) | (7,000) | (7,050) | (7,475) | (7,849) | (8,163) | (8,408) |
| Net deferred revenue | 1,500 | (400) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unlevered free cash flow | (26,093) | (15,616) | (5,196) | (628) | 1,034 | 1,674 | 1,977 | 2,215 | 2,376 | 2,447 |
| Discount factor | 0.990 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | 0.563 | 0.507 | 0.457 | 0.412 | 0.371 |
| Present value | (6,456) | (13,353) | (4,003) | (436) | 647 | 943 | 1,003 | 1,013 | 979 | 908 |
| Valuation | Thesis stress |
|---|
| Sum of present values, Q4 2026 to 2035 | (18,755) |
| Terminal value at 2035 | 29,509 |
| Present value of terminal value | 10,949 |
| Enterprise value | (7,806) |
| Less net debt | (30,000) |
| Equity value | (37,806) |
| Equity value per share (USD) | (68.54) |
| Against 61.39 | -212% |
Sensitivity: equity value per share
| WACC \ terminal growth | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|
| 9% | (61.61) | (59.58) | (57.23) | (54.50) | (51.27) |
| 10% | (66.84) | (65.39) | (63.74) | (61.86) | (59.69) |
| 11% | (70.80) | (69.73) | (68.54) | (67.20) | (65.67) |
| 12% | (73.87) | (73.07) | (72.18) | (71.19) | (70.08) |
| 13% | (76.29) | (75.67) | (74.99) | (74.24) | (73.41) |
Continued funding
2026 to 2028 follow the funding-bridge continued-funding case: revenue reaching 12.5 billion a quarter by late 2028, a 70 percent cash margin, capex of 40 billion and 32 billion, deferred revenue of 600 to 800 million a quarter. From 2029 growth fades from 25 to 2.6 percent, the margin to 60 percent, capex to 12 billion a year of refresh. This case assumes the 2027 funding gap of 25 billion or more is financed and does not charge for the cost or dilution of that financing.
| USD millions | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E | 2031E | 2032E | 2033E | 2034E | 2035E |
|---|
| Revenue | 12,800 | 28,000 | 44,000 | 55,000 | 63,000 | 69,000 | 73,000 | 76,000 | 78,000 | 80,000 |
| Cash margin before rent | 70% | 70% | 68% | 66% | 64% | 62% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Cash generation before rent | 8,960 | 19,600 | 29,920 | 36,300 | 40,320 | 42,780 | 43,800 | 45,600 | 46,800 | 48,000 |
| Fixed rent | (2,156) | (4,216) | (7,716) | (9,000) | (9,270) | (9,548) | (9,835) | (10,130) | (10,433) | (10,746) |
| EBITDA after rent | 6,804 | 15,384 | 22,204 | 27,300 | 31,050 | 33,232 | 33,965 | 35,470 | 36,367 | 37,254 |
| Cash taxes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (1,350) | (1,362) | (1,262) | (1,330) | (1,360) | (1,388) |
| Cash capex | (33,117) | (40,000) | (32,000) | (24,000) | (18,000) | (14,000) | (12,000) | (12,000) | (12,000) | (12,000) |
| Net deferred revenue | 2,500 | 3,200 | 3,200 | 2,000 | 1,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unlevered free cash flow | (23,813) | (21,416) | (6,596) | 5,300 | 12,700 | 17,870 | 20,703 | 22,140 | 23,007 | 23,866 |
| Discount factor | 0.990 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | 0.563 | 0.507 | 0.457 | 0.412 | 0.371 |
| Present value | (5,891) | (18,313) | (5,081) | 3,678 | 7,941 | 10,066 | 10,506 | 10,122 | 9,476 | 8,855 |
| Valuation | Continued funding |
|---|
| Sum of present values, Q4 2026 to 2035 | 31,357 |
| Terminal value at 2035 | 287,795 |
| Present value of terminal value | 106,786 |
| Enterprise value | 138,143 |
| Less net debt | (30,000) |
| Equity value | 108,143 |
| Equity value per share (USD) | 196.05 |
| Against 61.39 | +219% |
Sensitivity: equity value per share
| WACC \ terminal growth | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|
| 9% | 273.88 | 293.69 | 316.54 | 343.21 | 374.72 |
| 10% | 217.70 | 231.85 | 247.89 | 266.22 | 287.37 |
| 11% | 173.99 | 184.41 | 196.05 | 209.16 | 224.01 |
| 12% | 139.13 | 147.00 | 155.69 | 165.34 | 176.14 |
| 13% | 110.81 | 116.86 | 123.49 | 130.78 | 138.84 |
Sources
CoreWeave Q2 2026 Form 10-Q (debt, cash, leases, share count at 31 July 2026); Q2 2026 call guidance (FY26 revenue 12.4 to 13.2 billion, capex 35 to 39 billion); Theseus CoreWeave funding bridge (14 October 2026) for the 2026 to 2028 paths; bond and CDS marks of 15 October 2026.
Provided for informational purposes only; not investment advice or an offer or solicitation. Scenario outputs are analyst assumptions, not forecasts of default. Affiliates of Theseus may hold long or short positions, including credit default swaps, in the companies discussed. See Disclaimers.
