Research

Roughly two trillion dollars of AI infrastructure is being financed ahead of the revenue meant to carry it. This series reads the capital structures, liquidity, contracted revenue and covenants of the companies building and leasing that capacity, asks where a disappointment in AI monetisation becomes a credit event first, and prices the instruments available to express that view. Each report can be read here or downloaded.

• Where to Buy Protection: Entry Points for Neocloud Credit

  17 October 2026Credit strategyReadDownload

  Only two of ten issuers in the AI build-out have a liquid credit default swap market, and the most probable form of non-payment at the largest of them, a liability-management exchange, does not trigger a standard contract. Entry is a set of conditions, not a spread level: instrument access, tenor matched to the funding gap, a level at or inside the cash bonds, and a quiet tape.

• AI Infrastructure Credit Risk and the Case for Protection

  15 October 2026Consolidated reportReadDownload

  Three premises for a credit short on AI infrastructure: economic transmission from customers to creditors, dependence on external financing, and residual creditor exposure after remedies. A CoreWeave funding bridge through 2028, the project-level obligations of the data-center landlords, GPU collateral stress and the economics of a protection contract.

• Oracle Free Cash Flow and Debt Serviceability

  17 October 2026Issuer noteReadDownload

  Several years of negative free cash flow can coexist with interest covered more than four times. The investment-grade link in the chain is a financing-dependence and spread-widening thesis, not a default thesis; the remaining 20 billion dollars of the fiscal 2027 plan is the variable.

• Nebius Cash Flow and Credit Risk

  17 October 2026Issuer noteReadDownload

  Operating cash flow carried by customer prepayments, eight series of accreting converts at a Dutch holding company and a Meta agreement that interrupts the link from weak third-party demand to lost receipts. Last of the owner-operators to break, with no public protection market.

• IREN Cash Flow and Debt Serviceability

  17 October 2026Issuer noteReadDownload

  GPU financing that amortises faster than customer cash arrives. Microsoft-backed tranches carry acceptance and termination mechanics that can move a project loss to the parent through a remarketing guarantee; the newer non-investment-grade facilities carry parent recourse from day one.

• Cipher Digital Credit Risk: Thesis Test and Instrument Assessment

  16 October 2026Issuer noteReadDownload

  Completion guarantees, a Barber Lake cost bridge and Amazon-backed leases that weaken a demand short. The construction-financing branch of the thesis fits; the demand-collapse branch does not. Barber Lake is the project to underwrite first.

• TeraWulf Cash Flow and Debt Serviceability

  17 October 2026Issuer noteReadDownload

  Project debt backstopped by Google once each building commences; 2.5 billion dollars of parent converts backstopped by no one. The parent must fund a second campus, collateral for a third and any completion shortfall at the first from a cash pool the project indenture sweeps to noteholders.

• Hut 8 Cash Flow and Debt Serviceability

  17 October 2026Issuer noteReadDownload

  Two series of fully amortising investment-grade project notes, no parent debt, no protection market and no object for a credit short. The risk is the equity cushion: 95 percent loan-to-cost, an unfinanced second phase and a parent whose liquidity is largely bitcoin.

Research notes and models are provided for informational purposes only and are not investment advice or an offer or solicitation. Scenario outputs are analyst assumptions, not forecasts of default. Affiliates of Theseus may hold long or short positions, including credit default swaps, in the companies discussed. See Disclaimers.