Models
AI Credit Cycle
Series · October 2026Working models behind the AI Credit Cycle research. Inputs are sourced to filings; scenarios are analyst assumptions, not forecasts.
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CoreWeave Discounted Cash Flow
Two cases, thesis stress and continued funding, extended to 2035 and valued on unlevered free cash flow after rent, taxes, capex and deferred revenue. The stress path leaves no equity value; the funded path values the shares well above the current price before the cost of the 2027 financing it assumes. The gap between the two is the funding window.
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CoreWeave Funding Bridge and Debt Register
Quarterly cash flow through 2028 under three cases, the June 2026 debt register with recourse classification, project completion funding for the data-center landlords, a GPU collateral stress and the economics of a protection contract.
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Implied default probabilities, upfront points, mark-to-market after a twelve-month hold and break-even widening at the spread levels of October 6 to 15, with the spread the cash bonds imply at each maturity. Companion to Where to Buy Protection.
Research notes and models are provided for informational purposes only and are not investment advice or an offer or solicitation. Scenario outputs are analyst assumptions, not forecasts of default. Affiliates of Theseus may hold long or short positions, including credit default swaps, in the companies discussed. See Disclaimers.