Summary
Summary
USD millions unless stated otherwise | Research as of 14-Oct-2026
Case selected:
| Decision output | Selected result |
First quarter below analytical cash buffer
Financing needed for buffer in that quarter
Financing needed to avoid negative cash
Peak cumulative buffer funding requirement
June debt with parent exposure
June non-recourse debt
GPU collateral shortfall: illustrative
Hypothetical $10m CDS: two-year cost
Hypothetical CDS: gross event payout
| Executable protection quote | Not obtained | ||||||||||||
| Quarterly liquidity before remedial financing | Q3:26 E | Q4:26 E | Q1:27 E | Q2:27 E | Q3:27 E | Q4:27 E | Q1:28 E | Q2:28 E | Q3:28 E | Q4:28 E |
Cash / cumulative unfunded balance
Funding required for $1bn buffer
Interpretation: a funding requirement is conditional on the selected cash spending and financing assumptions, not a prediction of default.
The stress case permits full modeled facility drawings and includes September net convertible cash, but assumes no new uncommitted financing.
Parent guarantees are not additional consolidated resources. Project rent backstops cannot be netted against CoreWeave parent funding needs.
WULF Compute now has a sourced completion-funding estimate; other project gaps and guaranteed recoveries remain unresolved.
A CDS payment requires a covered credit event; weaker GPU resale prices, lower profits or a cash forecast shortfall alone are insufficient.
Priority 1: refresh actual cash, equipment-payable settlement dates, exact monthly debt service and committed draw conditions.
Priority 2: obtain project cost-to-complete certificates, restricted-account waterfalls and hall-level guarantee activation evidence.
Priority 3: match GPU tranche amortization to acceptance, contract expiry, remarketing rights and independent resale bids.
Priority 4: secure firm CDS terms and access; do not assign basket weights before reference-entity and price verification.
Completion funding update
WULF baseline need before future receipts
WULF stress need before parent support
WULF figures use rounded June balances, exclude parent-funded fit-out, and assume no future receipts or incremental sponsor contribution.
CoreWeave Q4 funding need rises after adding estimated November / December amortization on additional DDTL 5.0 drawings.
Cipher priced new funding today. This is evidence of potential financing access; proceeds are not counted as settled cash.
Assumptions
Assumptions
USD millions unless stated otherwise | Research as of 14-Oct-2026
| Select case: 1 stress / 2 continued funding / 3 severe | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Q3:26 E | Q4:26 E | Q1:27 E | Q2:27 E | Q3:27 E | Q4:27 E | Q1:28 E | Q2:28 E | Q3:28 E | Q4:28 E |
Revenue
| Thesis stress | 3,300 | 4,000 | 4,200 | 4,400 | 4,600 | 4,800 | 5,000 | 5,200 | 5,400 | 5,600 | |||
| Continued funding | 3,300 | 4,400 | 5,500 | 6,500 | 7,500 | 8,500 | 9,500 | 10,500 | 11,500 | 12,500 | |||
| Severe stress | 3,000 | 3,400 | 3,400 | 3,300 | 3,200 | 3,200 | 3,200 | 3,200 | 3,200 | 3,200 |
Cash margin before fixed rent / interest
| Thesis stress | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% | |||
| Continued funding | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | |||
| Severe stress | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Net deferred revenue contribution
| Thesis stress | 450 | 300 | 0 | (200) | (200) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Continued funding | 600 | 700 | 800 | 800 | 800 | 800 | 800 | 800 | 800 | 800 | |||
| Severe stress | 200 | 0 | (300) | (300) | (200) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Other working-capital cash outflow
| Thesis stress | 100 | 150 | 250 | 200 | 150 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| Continued funding | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| Severe stress | 300 | 300 | 300 | 300 | 300 | 300 | 300 | 300 | 300 | 300 |
Cash capex excluding capitalized interest
| Thesis stress | 9,000 | 10,000 | 7,000 | 6,000 | 5,000 | 4,000 | 3,000 | 3,000 | 3,000 | 3,000 | |||
| Continued funding | 9,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 8,000 | 8,000 | 8,000 | 8,000 | |||
| Severe stress | 9,000 | 8,000 | 5,000 | 3,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 |
Additional fixed rent beyond June schedule
| Thesis stress | 0 | 100 | 250 | 400 | 550 | 700 | 800 | 900 | 1,000 | 1,100 | |||
| Continued funding | 0 | 100 | 300 | 500 | 700 | 900 | 1,100 | 1,300 | 1,500 | 1,700 | |||
| Severe stress | 0 | 100 | 250 | 400 | 550 | 650 | 700 | 750 | 800 | 850 |
Other investing outflow
| Thesis stress | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| Continued funding | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| Severe stress | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
RCF cash draws
| Thesis stress | 1,200 | 767 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Continued funding | 1,200 | 767 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Severe stress | 1,200 | 767 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
DDTL 3 cash draws
| Thesis stress | 385 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Continued funding | 385 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Severe stress | 385 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
DDTL 4 cash draws
| Thesis stress | 2,000 | 2,000 | 1,663 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Continued funding | 2,000 | 2,000 | 1,663 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Severe stress | 2,000 | 1,500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
DDTL 5 cash draws
| Thesis stress | 1,999 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Continued funding | 1,999 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Severe stress | 1,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
DDTL 5.5 cash draws
| Thesis stress | 1,200 | 1,400 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Continued funding | 1,200 | 1,400 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Severe stress | 1,200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Future uncommitted debt funding
| Thesis stress | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Continued funding | 0 | 8,000 | 6,000 | 6,000 | 6,000 | 6,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 | |||
| Severe stress | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
June debt annual cash interest rate
| Thesis stress | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | |||
| Continued funding | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | |||
| Severe stress | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
New drawings annual cash interest rate
| Thesis stress | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | |||
| Continued funding | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | |||
| Severe stress | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
New term draw amortization / quarter
| Thesis stress | 0 | 0 | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | |||
| Continued funding | 0 | 0 | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | |||
| Severe stress | 0 | 0 | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
Reserve cash funded
| Thesis stress | 112 | 0 | 148 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Continued funding | 112 | 0 | 148 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Severe stress | 112 | 0 | 7.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Minimum analytical cash buffer
| Thesis stress | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | |||
| Continued funding | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | |||
| Severe stress | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 |
Cash margin includes variable leases, cash taxes and operating costs; fixed rents and interest are deducted separately.
Cash capex includes settlement of equipment payables but excludes capitalized interest; all cash interest is shown separately.
Draws are conditional, not cash on hand. Full availability is assumed in case 1; case 3 restricts draws.
New term amortization is a proxy: 5% of cumulative original draws quarterly from Q1:27; replace with lender schedules.
Future financing is uncommitted and uses an interest-only proxy within the forecast horizon; no equity issuance assumed.
Reserve is conservatively cash-funded; eligible letters of credit could reduce cash use. Buffer is an analytical choice, not a covenant.
No additional coupon step-ups, commitment fees or Sept offering expenses are forecast separately; add to other cash outflows if known.
DDTL 5.0 repayment timing on post-June drawings
| Annual original-balance amortization proxy | 20% | ||||||||||||
| Q4:26 payment months: November / December | 2 |
November start is reported in the June 10-Q. The 20% annual amount is an assumption, not the unavailable lender schedule.
Applies only to post-June DDTL 5.0 drawings; June debt repayment buckets already include service on existing principal.
Other new drawings retain the quarterly proxy from Q1:27. Average-quarter cash interest is still an approximation.
CoreWeave CF
CoreWeave CF
USD millions unless stated otherwise | Research as of 14-Oct-2026
Case selected:
| Cash-flow forecast | Q3:26 E | Q4:26 E | Q1:27 E | Q2:27 E | Q3:27 E | Q4:27 E | Q1:28 E | Q2:28 E | Q3:28 E | Q4:28 E |
Revenue
Cash generation before fixed rent / interest
Net deferred revenue contribution
Other working-capital outflow
Commenced operating lease cash
Additional fixed rent
Cash interest on June debt
Cash interest on new facility drawings
September convertible cash coupon
Operating cash after interest / rent
Cash capex excluding capitalized interest
Other investing cash outflow
Cash flow before financing / principal
June debt scheduled principal
New term draw scheduled principal
Finance lease cash (principal and interest)
Debt / lease cash service total
June facilities cash draws
DDTL 5.5 cash draws
Future uncommitted debt cash proceeds
September convert net cash after capped call
Incremental restricted reserve cash
Opening unrestricted cash + securities
Net change before remedial financing
Closing cash before remedial financing
Cumulative financing required to reach zero
Cumulative financing required for buffer
Buffer breached (1 = yes)
June debt closing principal
New term facilities cumulative original draws
New term facilities closing principal
RCF / future debt closing principal
New debt closing principal excl Sept convert
Forecast is an analytical liquidity statement, not a GAAP statement: all cash interest and finance lease payments are shown once.
Negative balances mean unmet cumulative financing needs; they do not imply the business could continue operating with negative cash.
Annual June principal / lease buckets are allocated evenly across quarters. Exact payment dates can move the first-gap quarter.
Consolidated availability overstates parent flexibility if subsidiary distributions are restricted. Restricted opening cash is excluded.
No automatic capex cancellation, asset sales, restructuring, equity cure or sponsor rescue is assumed beyond the selected drivers.
Incremental reserve funding covers DDTL 5.5 only. Other facility reserve increases and fees are not fully quantified and could enlarge the gap.
Q4:26 now includes two months of assumed amortization on post-June DDTL 5.0 drawings; exact Schedule 2.08 remains unavailable.
Debt register
Debt register
USD millions unless stated otherwise | Research as of 14-Oct-2026
| Facility | Borrower / obligor | June principal | Parent exposure | Maturity | Terms | |||
| DDTL 1.0 | CCAC II | 1,300 | Parent guarantee | Mar-2028 | Secured; 15% effective rate at June | |||
| DDTL 2.0 | CCAC IV | 3,190 | Parent guarantee | Aug-2030 | Secured; 11% effective rate at June | |||
| DDTL 2.1 | CCAC IV | 3,000 | Parent guarantee | Mar-2031 | Secured; 9% effective rate at June | |||
| DDTL 3.0 | CCAC V / VII | 2,215 | Parent guarantee | Aug-2030 | Secured; $385m undrawn at June | |||
| DDTL 5.0 | CoreWeave Financing DDTL V | 1,101 | Parent guarantee | Nov-2031 | SOFR + 4.5%; monthly amortization begins Nov-2026 | |||
| 2030 senior notes | CoreWeave Inc. | 2,000 | Direct parent debt | Jun-2030 | 9.25%; unsecured | |||
| 2031 senior notes | CoreWeave Inc. | 1,750 | Direct parent debt | Feb-2031 | 9.00%; unsecured | |||
| 2031 senior notes | CoreWeave Inc. | 2,750 | Direct parent debt | Oct-2031 | 9.75%; unsecured | |||
| 2032 senior notes | CoreWeave Inc. | 1,250 | Direct parent debt | Jul-2032 | 9.625%; unsecured | |||
| 2032 EUR senior notes | CoreWeave Inc. | 2,279 | Direct parent debt | Jul-2032 | 8.50%; USD carrying principal; FX risk | |||
| 2031 convertible notes | CoreWeave Inc. | 2,588 | Direct parent debt | Dec-2031 | 1.75%; unsecured | |||
| 2032 convertible notes | CoreWeave Inc. | 4,000 | Direct parent debt | Oct-2032 | 1.75%; unsecured | |||
| Revolving credit facility | CoreWeave Inc. | 0 | Direct parent debt | Nov-2029 | $2500m capacity less $533m letters of credit at June | |||
| OEM / software financing: recourse | Various subsidiaries | 4,220 | Recourse per filing | Dec-2026 to Jul-2030 | Vendor agreements; instrument-level guarantor detail required | |||
| Magnetar note | Parent / affiliate arrangement | 189 | Recourse per filing | Jan-2029 | Confirm holder and surviving claim at trade date | |||
| DDTL 4.0 | CCAC VIII | 2,837 | Non-recourse; limited carve-outs | Mar-2032 | Secured; $5663m undrawn; restricted three-month coverage reserve | |||
| OEM financing: non-recourse | Financing subsidiaries | 882 | Non-recourse | Aug-2026 to Aug-2028 | GPU collateral; vendor agreement schedules required |
June total principal
Recourse / direct parent
Non-recourse
Difference to reported total
| Subsequent facility | Borrower | Capacity / face | Parent exposure | Maturity | Terms | |||
| DDTL 5.5 | CoreWeave Financing DDTL V-V | 2,600 | Unconditional parent guarantee | Sep-2031 | SOFR + 5.5%; draws through Dec-2026; approx 3-year contracts | |||
| Sept convertible | CoreWeave Inc. | 4,200 | Direct parent debt | 2033 | 2.875%; net cash after capped calls $3570.8m, before other expenses | |||
| June contractual principal bucket | H2:26 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Later | ||
| Scheduled principal | 4,413 | 6,184 | 4,416 | 2,421 | 3,221 | 14,896 |
Source: CW 10-Q Note 10 and August / September agreements; links in Evidence. Borrower shorthand must be checked against executed documents.
DDTL 5.5: reserve initially $112.5m, later max(10% of outstanding principal, $112.5m), subject to contractual exceptions.
Replacement / renewed contracts face DSCR and contract-value tests; do not equate a test failure with immediate payment default.
Monthly amortization is set by schedules; unavailable exact future schedules are estimated in the consolidated model.
Parent guarantees move subsidiary risk to the parent. They do not add outside cash to the consolidated borrower.
A default at a non-recourse subsidiary need not trigger parent CDS. Cross-default, threshold, guarantee and credit-event language matter.
The filing identifies $18.2bn noncurrent and $2.6bn current assets supporting constrained financing entities. Do not assume fungibility.
DDTL 5.0 Section 2.08 ties principal payments to Schedule 2.08 and outstanding debt at commitment termination.
The public exhibit inspected lists Schedule 2.08 but does not supply the percentage table. The model cannot reproduce exact lender payments.
Projects
Projects
USD millions unless stated otherwise | Research as of 14-Oct-2026
| Project / issuer | Debt face | Coupon | Delay interest | Cost to complete | Usable project cash | Drawable support | Stressed funding gap | ||
| Lake Mariner / WULF Compute | 3,200 | 8% | 1,700 | 1,500 | 0 | ||||
| Barber Lake / Cipher Compute | 1,733 | 7% | |||||||
| Black Pearl Compute | 2,000 | 6% | |||||||
| River Bend / Hut 8 DC LLC | 3,250 | 6% | |||||||
| Beacon Point / Beacon Point DC LLC | 4,250 | 6% | |||||||
| Stingray Compute / Cipher | 810 | 6% | |||||||
| Illustrative construction delay, months | 6 | ||||||||
| Cost overrun on remaining spend | 15% |
WULF Compute cash and remaining capex are now sourced, rounded June figures. Other yellow inputs remain unavailable.
WULF support input of zero is a stress assumption: no parent funding, future rent or reserve surplus is credited. It is not zero legal support.
Restricted project cash, debt-service reserves and sponsor cash have different permitted uses; group balances cannot fill these inputs.
| Project / support | Activation / timing | Covered risk | |||||||
| Lake Mariner | $600m Google support effective after CB-3 delivery in early July 2026 | Fluidstack lease support; not a general construction-cost guarantee. | |||||||
| Lake Mariner CB-4 / CB-5 | Phased deliveries expected H2:26 / early 2027 | TeraWulf provides completion guarantees; quantify its remaining funding obligation and capacity. | |||||||
| Barber Lake | Tenant beneficial use reported August; exact activation certificate needed | Google backstop up to $1.73bn; declining lease support, not unrestricted cash. | |||||||
| Black Pearl | Initial capacity delivered / rent began August 2026 | Amazon.com guarantees base rent and operating expenses; construction completion still matters. | |||||||
| River Bend | Initial hall delivery targeted Q2:27 | Google backs Fluidstack lease obligations; confirm commencement and termination-payment conditions. | |||||||
| Beacon Point | Initial hall delivery targeted Q3:27 | Project debt non-recourse to Hut parent; confirm tenant guarantee and draw conditions. | |||||||
| Group liquidity at June 2026 | Unrestricted | Restricted | Scope | ||||||
| TeraWulf | 2,619 | 409 | Consolidated; not parent-only | ||||||
| Cipher | 832 | 3,728 | Across projects; not fungible | ||||||
| Hut 8 | 234 | 6,787 | Primarily project accounts |
Cipher supplier commitments: $2169.3m. This is not a complete project cost-to-complete estimate; accrued construction may overlap.
Do not count guarantee face value as cash that absorbs a construction funding gap. Eligible claims, caps, timing and recoverability are required.
| River Bend pre-issuance illustration | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | ||||
| NOI | 171 | 373 | 384 | 395 | 407 | ||||
| Expensed construction | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Operating interest | 51 | 202 | 197 | 190 | 183 | ||||
| Principal amortization | 0 | 63 | 96 | 112 | 128 |
Residual cash from rounded inputs
30% NOI haircut, before backstop
| Illustrative NOI haircut | 30% |
Issuer April 2026 illustration, not current guidance or final indenture amortization; rounded inputs can differ from shown residuals by $1m.
This scenario shows cash before lease support. It is not a forecast of net creditor loss or a reason to short a Google-backed claim.
Sources: TeraWulf Q2 release; Cipher Q2 10-Q / Feb presentation; Hut Q2 release, River Bend April presentation and closing 8-K.
Lake Mariner: Google warrants are pledged before lease commencement, then released; their stressed value is not fixed cash protection.
Google affiliate also undertakes termination-fee payment under recognition agreements. Caps, triggers and payment dates require contract review.
WULF Compute completion funding: June snapshot, not a payment-date forecast
Baseline remaining capex less adjusted cash
Assumed cost overrun
Assumed incremental delay interest
Total before parent funding / future receipts
| TeraWulf parent cash at June, rounded | 1,200 | Parent cash is not fully dedicated to Lake Mariner. | |||||||
| July first JV-sale payment, excluded from June | 250 | ||||||||
| Parent cash plus July payment, before other uses | Rounded arithmetic; not an updated cash balance. |
Required allocation / parent pro forma cash
Source: TeraWulf Q2 investor presentation, slide 20. $1.9bn project cash less $0.4bn DSRA / construction-interest reserves = $1.5bn.
Remaining capex of $1.7bn excludes parent-funded tenant fit-out, later recovered through increased rent. Fit-out increases interim funding needs.
The $579m stress adds 15% to remaining spend and six months of gross coupon interest. No unused IDC reserve is assumed available for the delay.
Future rent receipts, parent contributions and reserve release may cover part of the requirement. Neither their amount nor payment timing is established here.
TeraWulf completion guarantees and Google lease support are separate. Parent support capacity depends on other development and corporate obligations.
Presentation values are rounded; $200m / $579m are approximate scenario amounts, not precise shortfall claims.
CB-4 / CB-5 delivery targets span H2:26 and early 2027. Monthly cost-to-complete and rent schedules are required to locate a funding quarter.
Cipher funding update: priced, not settled at the research cutoff
14-Oct-2026: $850m of zero-coupon senior unsecured convertibles due 2032 priced; $150m purchaser option. Scheduled closing: 16-Oct-2026.
Concurrent exchange expected: approximately $165.9m of 2030 notes for approximately 40.7m shares. It is not a cash repayment in this announcement.
Do not add gross proceeds to June liquidity or project reserves. Closing, net proceeds and allocation must be confirmed.
Stingray: $810m 6% notes closed June 15; $61.5m sponsor reimbursement and reserves reduce gross proceeds available for remaining construction.
Stingray coupons are due June 15 / December 15, beginning December 2026; maturity June 2031. Project cost-to-complete remains unavailable.
Cipher announced cash proceeds: conditional on closing
| Estimated proceeds after purchaser discount | 835 | ||||||||
| Capped-call cost | 89.7 |
Remaining before other offering expenses
Uses include additional equity for Barber Lake and wider development. No project-specific allocation is disclosed; do not count all $745.4m as Barber support.
Although stated maturity is 2032, holders may require a cash repurchase on November 1, 2030. Include that put in any maturity analysis.
The $150m option and incremental capped calls are excluded. The expected 2030-note share exchange is separate from these cash proceeds.
GPU stress
GPU stress
USD millions unless stated otherwise | Research as of 14-Oct-2026
| DDTL 5.5 residual-value stress | Input / result | Basis | |||
| Fully drawn debt | 2,600 | Analyst assumes full facility draw | |||
| Advance rate on original asset cost | 80% | Analyst assumption; not reported LTV | |||
| Original equipment cost | Debt divided by assumed advance rate | ||||
| Customer contract term, years | 3 | Average reported; actual contracts vary | |||
| Debt maturity, years | 5 | Approximate reported tenor | |||
| Annual amortization of original debt | 20% | Analyst proxy; replace with contractual schedule | |||
| Debt remaining at contract end | Original debt less assumed amortization | ||||
| Resale value / original equipment cost | 30% | Analyst stress; not a vendor quote | |||
| Selling / liquidation cost | 10% | Analyst stress | |||
| Net equipment proceeds | Resale less disposal costs | ||||
| Collateral shortfall before parent guarantee | Debt remaining less net equipment proceeds | ||||
| Parent guarantee recoverable amount | Not established; correlated with parent solvency | ||||
| Initial project DSCR | 1.5 | Analyst assumption | |||
| Operating cash-flow decline | 20% | Analyst assumption | |||
| Stressed DSCR | Cash decline; unchanged debt service | ||||
| Reference DSCR threshold | 1.35 | Agreement; full tests and cure terms apply |
At 20% annual original-balance amortization, 40% remains after three years. A five-year loan is not automatically a five-year bullet.
Refinancing / re-leasing requirements and parent support matter alongside liquidation value. Covenant stress is not necessarily a CDS event.
| IREN Microsoft GPU financing | Value | Interpretation | |||
| DDTL funded at June | 413 | SOFR + 2.25%; monthly principal; conditional milestone draws | |||
| Private-placement notes funded | 525 | 5.96%; monthly principal; escrow release conditions | |||
| Pledged equipment net book value | 1,487 | Accounting carrying value, not liquidation value |
Funded debt / equipment book value
IREN financing generally non-recourse, with limited parent guarantees tied to pre-acceptance termination and certain hedges.
Acceptance can release parent guarantees; each tranche needs its own acceptance date, debt schedule and customer contract cash waterfall.
Sources: CoreWeave DDTL 5.5 agreement / release; IREN June 2026 annual filing. Exact lender amortization tables remain necessary.
CDS economics
CDS economics
USD millions unless stated otherwise | Research as of 14-Oct-2026
| Hypothetical CDS trade | Input / result | Status | |||
| Notional, USD millions | 10 | Illustrative; not a minimum dealer size | |||
| Running annual coupon | 5% | Illustrative standardized coupon | |||
| Upfront premium, % of notional | 8% | Illustrative; not a live quote | |||
| Holding horizon, years | 2 | Assumes no-event hold to horizon | |||
| Recovery on credit event | 20% | Scenario; actual auction recovery can differ | |||
| Fees / other cash costs | 0 | Placeholder; excludes margin funding and slippage | |||
| Annual running premium | Notional times coupon | ||||
| Upfront cash premium | Notional times upfront | ||||
| Two-year no-event cash cost | Upfront plus running premium plus fees | ||||
| Gross credit-event payout | Notional times loss given default | ||||
| Net profit if event at horizon | Payout less assumed costs | ||||
| Simplified break-even event probability | Cost divided by payout; not a valuation model |
No executable dealer quote obtained. CoreWeave five-year CDS was publicly reported at 505bp on 12-Nov-2025; this is historical only.
Market existence does not establish current liquidity, your account eligibility, obtainable notional or correct reference obligation.
Project-SPV CDS availability is unverified. Parent CDS is not interchangeable with protection on a non-recourse project.
No dealer has been contacted. A real contract and cost cannot be asserted until an eligible account receives a firm quote.
| Dealer request / access check | Required specification | ||||
| Reference entity | CoreWeave Inc.; exact legal name, RED identifier, seniority and reference obligation | ||||
| Tenor and size | Request 3Y and 5Y; sample sizes $1m / $5m / $10m, subject to dealer minimums | ||||
| Price | Timestamped firm bid/offer: upfront points, coupon, accrued premium and quote validity | ||||
| Credit events | Bankruptcy / failure to pay / restructuring elections, thresholds, grace periods and guarantees | ||||
| Settlement | Auction / cash / physical terms, deliverable obligations, succession and settlement currency | ||||
| Account access | Jurisdiction, investor category, dealer onboarding, documentation and permitted product scope | ||||
| Collateral | ISDA / CSA, initial and variation margin, thresholds, eligible collateral and funding cost | ||||
| Exit | Firm unwind quote / bid-offer at stated size; stressed liquidity and termination provisions | ||||
| Basket decision | Single-name CDS basket requires each name to be independently tradeable; avoid substituting correlated equity proxies |
Cost illustration ignores discounting, early premium cessation, accrual convention and mark-to-market unwind; it is a cash-budget example.
Risk ranking: first test CoreWeave parent exposure; research project completion and GPU tranches separately before assigning basket weights.
Market update: separate observed credit stress from executable CDS pricing
Bloomberg, 14-Oct-2026, reports CoreWeave 2032 unsecured bonds below 80 and yielding over 15%, citing TRACE trades.
A bond yield is not a CDS premium. It cannot replace dealer upfront points, running coupon, bid/offer and settlement terms.
A secondary automated report claims near-1000bp CDS today; not independently verified, so it is excluded from the trade calculator.
The prior 5% coupon / 8-point upfront example remains illustrative and must not be read as current obtainable pricing.